Cat5bird Seat
Is Microsoft Eating Its Children?
The Redmond giant competes squarely with partners on two fronts that might have other partners shaking in their boots, wondering who'll be next.
If you have the benefit of a good classical education, you may remember
the story of Zeus and Kronos. To recap briefly, the Greek god Kronos was
one of the Titans who ruled the world in the Golden Age. But he was fearful
of being overthrown by one of his own children (understandably worried,
since he'd killed his own father Uranus in a rather messy fashion). To
prevent this, he swallowed his wife Rhea's children as they were born.
But when Zeus was born, Rhea wrapped up a stone in swaddling clothes and
swallowed that instead. Sure enough, Zeus later forced Kronos to regurgitate
his siblings and then led them in a successful revolt against the Titans,
installing himself on the throne of Olympus.
What brings this story to mind is some of Microsoft's recent moves in
the system applications software space. Specifically, this fall Microsoft
brought out System
Center Data Protection Manager, which moves the company squarely into
the backup and recovery space, and announced the beta of Microsoft
Client Protection, which includes a virus protection component. It
certainly seems like the company is responding to an era of slower growth
in some of its traditional cash-cow products by going after markets that
it has traditionally left to its partners. The back-up and virus-protection
companies can't be too happy about this Kronos-like activity on Microsoft's
part.
More to the point, though, is the message that these moves are sending
to systems applications vendors in general. It's easy to write platitudes
about how the new economy has ushered in an era of "coopetition,"
an ugly neologism that is supposed to refer to the benefits of cooperating
in some instances with firms that are otherwise your competitors. But
when one of those firms is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla and it decides
to eat your banana, then life is not so cheerful. You've got to wonder
at this point, if you see a chance to build up a multi-million dollar
business on the systems side, do you really want to do it on Windows?
What will Microsoft, having conquered and monopolized the desktop operating
system and office suite markets, come along to munch next? Might it not
be better to partner with a smaller vendor who's still trying to build
up rather than exploit a partner ecosystem? I don't have pat answers,
but I'm sure I'm not the only one asking the questions.
It's also pretty clear who's on tap to play the part of Zeus in this
little bit of modern mythology. You can't skim two paragraphs of any discussion
of "Web 2.0" these days without Google's name coming up as the
Source Of All Things Innovative and the potential Microsoft-killer. Never
mind that their stock is trading at some stratospheric multiple of earnings,
or that very few partner companies are making any money at all off of
Google these days (a few do sell offerings around the stand-alone search
appliances). The anyone-but-Microsoft crowd has focused on Mountain View
as the promised land these days, and there's no shaking their conviction
that any company that causes Steve Ballmer to throw chairs across the
room must be doing something right. Of course it's easy to believe that
any company that hasn't announced a public roadmap for its own operating
system and applications suite must have a top-secret plan for producing
them.
Myths exist because they provide insights into the human condition. With
that in mind, let's see how this one might play out. If we put Google
into the place of Zeus, it does seem that Microsoft-Kronos has had a world
of trouble in swallowing this particular offspring, no matter how much
they might like to do so. (You can argue about whether Google deserves
to be called one of Microsoft's children, but would it have been half
as successful without those millions of Windows boxes on the Internet?).
Eventually, when it reaches maturity, we should see Google rise up and
smite Microsoft with the aid of other software vendors, some of whom were
formerly Redmond's close allies. And then the new era of Web applications
will begin, presided over by the triumphant Google.
I don't actually think this scenario is all that likely; we're still
a fair ways off from most people wanting an operating system and productivity
applications delivered over the Internet instead of stored locally. So
to that extent, Microsoft has nothing to worry about. But it's natural
for mature companies to worry about being eaten by more nimble competitors,
especially if they used to be young and hungry themselves, and still vaguely
remember what it was like. What I don't understand is why a company in
that position (like Microsoft) would start cannibalizing its own partners'
markets. This seems a mighty shortsighted way to try to shore up the business.
One last thing to think about: In Greek mythology, the Golden Age was
before Zeus took over. Those hoping for a Google-led revolt against Microsoft
might want to be careful what they hope for.
Losing any sleep over a possible Google OS? Or do your office chairs
stay firmly on the floor? Let me know at MikeG1@larkfarm.com.
About the Author
Mike Gunderloy, MCSE, MCSD, MCDBA, is a former MCP columnist and the author of numerous development books.